National Bank of Poland leads on helping Ukraine’s currency

Ukrainian refugees see their currency hardly convertible at fair rates or even accepted. The lack of liquidity will also hit Ukraine’s government urgent expenses (medical supplies or weapons). The National Bank of Poland (NBP) offered a comprehensive financial package to address these problems. Firstly, it enabled the refugees to exchange the currency at a nearly …

Evidence-based quick wins in reducing oil demand

Following the Russia invasion on Ukraine an oil supply shock is expected and what is worse there may be no supply increase from OPEC+ . A way out is to cut the demand as advised by IEA. The proposed steps are quick-wins: easy to implement and reverse while having measurable and significant impact. The overall …

Quantitative overview of Nord Stream 2 issues

The briefing document of the European Parliament offers a quantitative and comprehensive view on the issues with Nord Stream 2. This excellent figure alone explains a lot: It may be interesting to realise that the points this document makes are underrepresented in popular press such as BBC. These concerns are discussed in measurable terms: The …

Iron logic defeats strawman

The straw man rhetorical technique is widely used: from scientific reviews (academia), through job interviews (industry) to the political discourse (international relations). The idea is simple: you distort arguments or opposing views to easier refute them. Not only is this trick popular, but proven successful statistically. The best weapon against it is logically strict reasoning. …

Can Russia defend its economy from sanctions?

While western leaders are proud of imposing largest sanctions ever, it seems that Russia can withstand the crisis longer than some expect. The following two points, underrepresented in popular media, support this claim: Historical AnalogyRussia’s went through 2014 financial crisis, where the currency significantly lost its value (from mid 30-s to around 80 for one …